VanEck's Casanova sees gold's pullback as noise, says mining stocks remain the standout trade

The gold market continues to struggle to find consistent bullish momentum, but one fund manager noted that the precious metal remains one of the best-performing assets over the past 12 months, with mining equities taking the top spot. Gold prices continue to consolidate above $4,000 an ounce, but in her latest precious metals note, Imaru Casanova, Precious Metals Portfolio Manager at VanEck, noted that gold prices are still up roughly 22% from a year ago, when the precious metal was trading around $3,300 an ounce in July 2025. At the same time, mining equities are up nearly 46%, compared with the S&P 500, which has gained 22%, even as valuations trade near record highs. Meanwhile, the broader commodities sector is up nearly 26%. Although the precious metal could continue to struggle as elevated inflation pressures prompt markets to price in at least one rate hike this year, Casanova dismissed the short-term volatility as noise. She noted that while the prospect of further central bank tightening has weighed on gold, forcing many banks to reduce their year-end price targets, analysts continue to maintain relatively bullish long-term outlooks. “Even after those downward revisions, at present, the consensus mean estimate for average annual gold prices stands at around $4,700 for 2026 and 2027, and above $4,000 for 2028 and 2029,” she said. “Gold price volatility and the recent pullback may be weighing on investors. However, in our view, it is important to look past near-term noise,” she added. “The continued strength in equity markets suggests a degree of optimism that could be tested. We believe investors may wish to reassess the risks associated with heightened geopolitical tensions, the prolonged effects of the Middle East conflict on the global economy and, importantly, the outlook for inflation.” Although inflation pressures have weighed on gold during its months-long correction, Casanova said there is still time for persistently elevated consumer p...