Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Defends $79.50 While Brent Holds $84.75 – NatGas Eyes Higher?

OPEC+ continued to maintain output discipline while non-OPEC supply, led by robust U.S. shale production, kept growing. Global refinery utilization remained elevated, supporting steady demand for transportation fuels and petrochemical feedstocks. U.S. crude inventories stayed near minimum working levels at key hubs while refined product demand remained resilient. Market sentiment in oil recently has been more of a recovery. After the interim deal reached between the US and Iran and the subsequent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian crude oil exports started to gradually return. While Iran oil trade and exports have yet to fully recover to pre-Hormuz Strait blockade levels, crude tanker movement has gradually returned to normal. As such, the market has returned to a more typical supply and demand imbalance. In recent weeks, the voluntary production cuts announced by OPEC+ have been scaled back. As part of those reductions, core OPEC+ members have announced further quota increases for both July and August. Oil prices have been generally positive on compliance data showing OPEC+ members continue to honor their production quotas. But as Iranian oil exports gradually return to the market, actual inventory data and oil prices will have more sway. Also, US oil production continues to stay at record levels while additional supplies come from Brazil, Guyana and Canada.