Trump's Hormuz toll plans bring oil supply risks back in spotlight

President Donald Trump's plan to impose a 20% fee on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz is threatening the global oil surplus, especially if renewed fighting shuts the key waterway again. Analysts said the proposed levy matters less for its direct cost than for what it signals: a heightened risk that disruptions to shipping through the strait could lead to supply shortages, upending forecasts of a surplus made earlier this month. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" that the market had been counting on stronger supplies following the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed last month, but that optimism has faded. "Those surpluses are certainly in jeopardy, especially if the strait would completely shut down." Lipow estimates that Trump's proposed fee, if applied to crude cargoes, would effectively add about $16 a barrel to oil shipped through the strait, though the administration has yet to clarify how the charge would be implemented. Citi warned that effecting the fee could also lift the possibility of a broader military confrontation in the near term. "It is our view that the risks of military escalation have risen materially should this announcement be implemen...