Circana’s 2026/2027 Global Food and Beverage Outlook Predicts Slow-to-Moderate Growth as Market Enters Period of Rationalization

U.S. consumers are no longer just cutting back; they are recalibrating how they buy, according to new Circana Compass research released today by Circana LLC. The insights show the U.S. retail food and beverage (F&B) industry grew 2.2% in the first half of 2026, and Circana projects growth will settle into a 2-3% range in 2027 as shoppers optimize spending amid financial pressure, shifting lifestyle priorities, and increasingly digital, AI-assisted shopping behavior. The findings signal a return toward pre-pandemic growth norms and a market entering a sustained period of rationalization.

The U.S. retail food and beverage industry grew 2.2% in the first half of 2026, in line with Circana's forecast of 2-4% growth. Volume growth was flat as expected, reflecting tightening consumer behaviors. Price/mix grew 2.3%, landing on the lower end of the expected range due to uncertainty in fresh food pricing – rising 0.4% in price/mix versus a year ago – while packaged food categories trended as expected, rising 3.7% in price/mix versus a year ago as cost pressures continued. Circana expects volume sales to remain flat through the balance of 2026 as strain on wallets persists and consumers grow more efficient in their spending. Price/mix growth should continue at similar rates, marked by steady, positive product mix shift, higher but stabilizing price growth in packaged goods, and rising price growth in fresh foods.

In Europe, year-to-date F&B sales through April grew 2.7% on 1.9% growth in price/mix. Circana expects high and rising inflation across Europe to boost F&B va...