Bitcoin Volatility Cools Even as Fed Risk Lingers

Bitcoin is trading around $64,085, up about 3.3% for the month. Even as a hawkish Federal Reserve and renewed Middle East tensions keep markets on edge, the waters are steadily calming for the premier cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin trades near $64,000 as Fed policy and geopolitical risk keep pressure on prices. Peak daily volatility has fallen from 7.58% in 2013 to a record low of 2.24% in 2025. A 5% bitcoin allocation lifted a 60/40 portfolio’s return to 11.64% from 8.56% annually.

According to CoinShares, this kind of choppy trading matches what its research on bitcoin's volatility would predict. The firm argues that the swings are becoming less severe as more long-term, institutional holders enter the market.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said that the Fed remains the biggest swing factor for bitcoin right now. The June Federal Open Market Committee minutes carried extra weight, he said, because Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has yet to offer a clear public view on rates. The committee held its benchmark at 3.50% to 3.75% while dropping language that had suggested a lean toward cuts. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $8 billion in outflows over eight weeks, the longest such streak on record, Butterfill said. He added that renewed buying over the past few trading days suggests that forced selling may be running out of steam. This is often the first sign that a market is bottoming.

Bitcoin's peak daily volatility has fallen from 7.58% in 2013 to a record low of 2.24% in 2025. According to CoinShares, the volatility has leveled as institutional participation has deepened.