The Week Ahead: Fed Speakers, Consumer Sentiment and Earnings Set Stock Market Tone

The Federal Reserve raised the fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, its first rate increase in three years. Policymakers raised inflation forecasts and penciled in another increase before year-end, while officials remained divided over 2027. Equities initially declined and bond yields rose after the decision before stocks rebounded. Second-quarter S&P 500 profits increased 50% from a year earlier, and analysts project 27% growth for the third quarter. Earnings are also expected near 20% for the S&P 500 and U.S. mid-cap stocks over the quarters ahead. Resilient consumer spending and broad-based earnings growth could support a wider range of sectors and companies. The Federal Reserve speaking schedule is the week’s primary market catalyst after the September rate increase.

Monday, September 21 Earnings Before the Open No reports scheduled Economic Releases No releases scheduled Earnings After the Close No reports scheduled

Tuesday, September 22 Earnings Before the Open AutoZone (AZO), est. $54.30 per share MillerKnoll (MLKN), est. $0.35 per share Thor Industries (THO), est. $0.89 per share Economic Releases 12:15 GMT, ADP Weekly Employment Change, prior 16.3K 14:00 GMT, Richmond Manufacturing Index, forecast 5 (prior 4) Earnings After the Close KB Home (KBH), est. $0.89 per share Worthington Enterprises (WOR), est. $0.75 per share

Wednesday, September 23 Earnings Before the Open Cintas (CTAS), est. $1.35 per share Cracker Barrel (CBRL), est. $0.16 per share General Mills (GIS), est. $0.72 per share Paychex (PAYX), est. $1.32 per share Economic Releases 13:45 GMT, Flash Manufacturing PMI, forecast 53.4 (prior 53.9) 13:45 GMT, Flash Services PMI, forecast 56.0 (prior 56.5) 14:30 GMT, Crude Oil Inventories, prior -0.6M Earnings After the Close H.B. Fuller (FUL), est. $1.47 per share Stitch Fix (SFIX), est. -0.06 per share

Thursday, September 24 Earnings Before the Open Darden Restaurants (DRI), est. $2.05 per share TD Synnex (SNX), est. $4.68 per share Darden , the Olive Garden parent, is expected to report fiscal 2027 first-quarter earnings of $2.05 per share, up 4.1% from a year earlier, on revenue of $3.2 billion, up 6.7%. UBS analyst Dennis Geiger expects solid same-store-sales trends and an intact earnings outlook despite select macro pressures. Investor sentiment is skewed negative on weak Olive Garden same-store sales, while LongHorn remains positive. Economic Releases 12:30 GMT, Unemployment Claims, forecast 201K (prior 196K) 12:30 GMT, Current Account, forecast -259B (prior -227B) 14:00 GMT, New Home Sales, forecast 619K (prior 607K) 14:30 GMT, Natural Gas Storage, prior 44B Earnings After the Close Costco Wholesale (COST), est. $6.53 per share BlackBerry (BB), est. $0.04 per share FedEx Freight (FDXF), est. $1.39 per share Costco is expected to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of $6.53 per share, up 11.2% from a year earlier, on revenue of $94.9 billion, up 10.1%. Oppenheimer analyst Rupesh Parikh said core earnings could again fall short of Street forecasts excluding tariff-refund benefits. He maintained an Outperform rating and said weakness in the shares represents a buying opportunity.

Friday, September 25 Earnings Before the Open No reports scheduled Economic Releases 12:30 GMT, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecast 0.5% (prior 0.4%) 12:30 GMT, Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecast -0.3% (prior 1.1%) 14:00 GMT, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, forecast 47.5 (prior 47.8) 14:00 GMT, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, prior 4.6% Earnings After the Close No reports scheduled