American Tower Sees 2026 Growth Trough Before 5G, AI and 6G Catalysts Lift Demand

2026 is expected to be American Tower’s organic growth trough, with tenant billings growth projected to accelerate in 2027 as Dish Network churn fades and carrier network investment improves. Future demand could be supported by 5G capacity expansion, higher-band spectrum, AI-driven uplink traffic and eventual 6G deployments. CoreSite’s data-center business is also benefiting from rising bandwidth and cloud-interconnection demand. American Tower is targeting 200–300 basis points of tower-business margin expansion and mid- to upper-mid-single-digit long-term AFFO-per-share growth, while Dish litigation and a Mexico arbitration could provide additional upside if resolved favorably.

American Tower CFO Rod Smith said the company expects 2026 to represent a trough year for organic tenant billings growth, with growth expected to accelerate in 2027 as customer churn moderates and wireless-network investment catalysts emerge. Speaking at a Citi event with analyst Mike Rollins, Smith said American Tower’s near-term focus includes protecting the value of its tower contracts, controlling operating expenses and positioning its U.S., European and emerging-market assets to benefit from future network upgrades.

Smith said U.S. carriers have largely completed their initial 5G coverage deployments, reaching roughly 90% to 95% coverage. As mobile-data usage and new applications grow, he expects carriers to add capacity at existing sites and densify networks through additional colocations on towers where they do not currently operate. He also cited expected demand for new towers to support higher-band spectrum, nearly 800 megahertz of additional spectrum expected to become available over the next several years, and the eventual transition to 6G later in the decade.

Artificial intelligence could create another source of demand, according to Smith. He said AI applications may require networks to handle more uplink traffic, rather than the current structure that largely favors downlink traffic. That change could require network upgrades that generate amendment activity for tower operators.

“We think there’s a lot of demand yet to come for our business,” Smith said, adding that American Tower’s CoreSite data-center assets are also positioned to benefit from rising bandwidth consumption and interconnected cloud demand.

Smith said the company expects its global organic tenant billings growth to inflect higher after 2026, driven in part by the absence of recurring Dish Network churn. He also pointed to expected improvement in Latin America, contracted stability in Europe and continued network build activity from major African carriers. In the U.S., Smith described a framework in which a 3% contractual annual escalator, combined with approximately 2.5% contribution from new business activity, would produce 5.5% growth before churn. With churn of about 1%, he said this supports organic tenant billings growth of roughly 4.5%, excluding Dish.

Smith said carrier investment is underpinned by growth in mobile-data consumption and network competition. He estimated carriers invest $30 billion to $35 billion annually in their networks, with a portion of that spending reaching tower sites through antennas, radios and related equipment. However, he acknowledged that application volume has declined from the peak of the 5G deployment cycle.