September 2026 Trading Outlook: Stock Market, Bonds, Fiscal Flows, And Interest Rates

Alan Longbon 2.98K Followers Follow Summary Markets are entering a phase where reactive Fed policy and renewed fiscal expansion drive asset prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Despite strong private-sector surpluses and fiscal flows, macro conditions are weakening due to upcoming federal tax collections and limited effective government spending. The Fed appears at or near its terminal rate for this cycle, with monetary policy constrained by the private interest debt burden and rising inflation. Expect flat risk asset markets through year-end, as the macro fiscal backdrop remains weak despite near-term tactical fiscal flow strength. ZenSaBi/E+ via Getty Images Introduction Markets are being assessed through the interplay of sectoral balances, the real‑estate cycle, and fiscal‑flow dynamics. They now appear to be entering a phase in which a more reactive Federal Reserve and a renewed round of fiscal This article was written by Alan Longbon 2.98K Followers Follow Trading real estate, equity and bond markets using fiscal flow analysis, functional finance, demographics and the real estate cycle.I stand on the shoulders of giants such as the work of Professors Wynne Godley, Micheal Hudson, Steve Keen, and William Mitchell, Roger Malcolm Mitchell, Warren Mosler, Robert P Balan and many others.One can analyze a country in seconds with four numbers as a % of GDP and these are G P X C where[G] Federal spending.[P] Non-Federal Spending.[X] Net Exports[C] CreditOne can then derive a set of accounting identities that are correct by definition.GDP = G + P + XAggregate Demand = G + P + X + C or GDP + Credit.GDP = GDIG and X are regularly reported in official national account statistics and one can work out P as follows:P = G + XFederal Deficit ↑ = Private Surplus ↑ = Risk Asset markets ↑ Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.