On Holdings: Brand Heat Fears Have Run Ahead Of The Evidence

On Holding’s sell-off looks more like the market pricing brand fatigue, while the evidence still points to franchise fatigue. The real pressure point is the U.S. wholesale sell-out. DTC growth, full-price gross margins, and strong early reception for newer products still argue against broad brand deterioration. The next product cycle is the key test: if sell-out stays weak after the refresh, the problem starts looking structural. Valuation has reset enough that ONON does not need 20%+ growth for the numbers to work.