Trump's $5,000 dividend proposal could add $1.2T to federal deficit, analysts say

President Donald Trump on Wednesday proposed giving a $5,000 "dividend" payment to every adult U.S. citizen if Republicans hold both chambers of Congress after this November's midterm elections, though the cost could add substantially to the federal deficit. Trump delivered a speech Wednesday night at the RNC's Midterm Convention in Dallas, pledging to issue the $5,000 dividends if GOP candidates secure majorities in both the House and Senate. "Because of our tremendous strength and success economically, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000," Trump told the crowd, adding that the dividend would have to be spent in the U.S.

Trump has previously floated dividend payments to American households, including DOGE and tariff dividends that were discussed last year but weren't enacted. And the latest proposal has raised concerns about the impact on the federal government's budget deficit and the national debt.

An analysis by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimated that issuing a $5,000 dividend to every adult citizen in the U.S. in 2027 would cost over $1.2 trillion , which the budget watchdog warned would be far more than all three of the COVID-era stimulus payments combined, as well as the 2027 cost of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. CRFB found the cost of the $5,000 dividend would more than double the federal government's primary budget deficit for next year, rising from $780 billion to $2 trillion, with the total projected deficit to $3.1 trillion. That would also push the deficit as a share of the economy from 5.8% of GDP this year to 9.4% in 2027.

CRFB President Maya MacGuineas called the proposal "fiscally dangerous, economically backwards and fundamentally unserious," adding that while "pandering is all too tempting to politicians, the reality is that the more goodies politicians promise, the more ordinary Americans will pay the price at the grocery store, on their mortgage statements or in the burden they leave their children."

Competitive Enterprise Institute Senior Economist Ryan Young told FOX Business, "President Trump's $5,000 check proposal is not going to happen, even if Republicans win the midterms." Young said that Americans are concerned about the $40 trillion national debt and that the plan would "add more than $1 trillion to that debt in one fell swoop." He also warned that the "checks conflict with Trump's desire for lower interest rates. The extra cash in circulation would raise inflation, which the Fed would likely have to counter with higher interest rates." "Over and above anything the Fed does, a trillion dollars in new spending would raise interest rates on government debt by making the government's financial situation even worse. Reluctant bond buyers would demand higher interest rates for taking on more risk."