Toast: This Quickly Turned Into My Favorite Fintech Play

Andres Veurink 2.35K Followers Follow Summary Toast is rated a Strong Buy, driven by 22% customer growth and 92.5% YoY earnings expansion despite a 20% share price decline. TOST targets 200,000 locations by 2026, with significant runway remaining in a US restaurant TAM of 875,000, and demonstrates strong pricing power. Shares trade at only 12x forward EPS ($2.71), with robust cash ($1B+), no debt, and rapid customer payback (1.5 years) supporting the investment case. Rising take rates and expanding ARR per location underpin forecasts for continued margin improvement and a 33.6% higher enterprise value by 2030. Thanasis Zovoilis/DigitalVision via Getty Images Investment Thesis A company able to grow its customer base by 22% and its earnings by 92.5% YoY is not the type you expect to be down 20% as well. Well, that is the case with Toast, Inc. ( This article was written by Andres Veurink 2.35K Followers Follow With over a decade of institutional investment experience, I specialize in identifying growth opportunities at the intersection of technological disruption and macro-thematic energy shifts. I've spent the majority of that time at a hedge fund here in Rotterdam, working my way up as an analyst. My work reflects rigorous standards as I myself have a very high standard as to what I invest my money in. My primary coverage spans the technology sector—with a focus on SaaS and cloud infrastructure—and the energy and minerals markets. I tend to be very data and trend driven in my work, analyzing unit economics and supply chain gaps among a number of other often overlooked areas in business and industries.I find these offer incredible growth opportunities and are also very fun to research and follow. It's a very active space with plenty of news coming out each week. Work is my own thoughts and research is done only by myself. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TOST either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.