Many Surprises Ahead; My Last Bearish Call

I maintain a 'buy' on IEF and TLT, favoring the longer end as capital flows into duration amid skepticism about economic strength and inflation stickiness. Recent data suggest a cooling economy, with ISM manufacturing PMI and new orders declining, while inflation is likely to surprise to the downside as AI-driven cost savings emerge. Energy relief is expected by H1 2027, with oil supply recovery and US-Venezuela deals potentially easing inflationary pressures and supporting a bond-friendly environment. Anthropic's IPO is a critical near-term catalyst for AI-related equities; tactical opportunities exist in select B2B tech names with strong institutional ownership and modest multiples.

Being on the market since 16 y.o., trading on 2 local and Global (American) markets, I have gained extensive experience, and, frankly speaking, unforgettable feelings (e.g. when the Russian stock market crashed almost 50% in one day and bounced back 24% the day after). I have started posting on Seeking Alpha at the time of rethinking my positioning and, broadly speaking, strategy on the market as a retail investor. I believe that, potentially, it is the worst time in history to be a retail investor, given that we have almost no edge over even the smallest institutions. This implies that potentially there might be a time when there will be no sense at all to be an individual investor worth at least (e.g.) $250,00. But until then, I am trying to figure out my best positioning, learning and understanding behavioural patterns of institutional players, trying to act either faster or smarter than them. I believe that article composition may be a good mental exercise for myself, as they make an investment thesis more tangible, allowing one to read through it and assess the strength of the arguments and logical connection in-between. Here I mostly cover mid-term, fundamentally solid investment and speculative ideas. I love growth at a reasonable price and believe that this is the best model in our (broadly speaking) deflationary world, as markets tend to underestimate such companies in the short-term, focusing on less sustainable, but more rapidly growing cases. As the situation unfolds, previously underestimated companies steadily gain recognition and eventually become market champions, favouring their shareholders. However, I am also seeking to broaden my focus, inquiring into value cases to demonstrate how broadly "value" can be defined. The word "advisory" in the nickname is picked to distinguish between my profiles on different platforms. The only person whom I give practical advice on what to acquire and how to construct positions is myself. However, "advisory" also represents the way I compose my articles, introducing my vision, outlining a variety of different scenarios and emphasising a variety of outcomes and lenses, which can be applied.