Moderna Just Doubled Overnight, and 2 More Healthcare Stocks Could Follow It

Marc Lichtenfeld of the Oxford Club highlights three healthcare plays across different time horizons: Moderna for traders, Pharvaris for the next year, and AbbVie as a long-term hold.

Moderna surged 177% after positive Phase 3 melanoma data with Merck's Keytruda, while Pharvaris awaits third-quarter CHAPTER-3 trial results for its hereditary angioedema drug.

AbbVie has raised its dividend every year since its 2013 spinoff, with Skyrizi and Rinvoq sales offsetting Humira's decline and pushing full-year revenue guidance to $67.6 billion.

Drug pricing is back on the front page, and healthcare investors have barely flinched. The White House's latest round of most-favored-nation pricing agreements brought nine more manufacturers into the fold, pushing the total to 26 companies covering 89% of the branded drug market. The sector kept climbing anyway.

Attention has been locked on AI and semiconductors all year, and meanwhile, healthcare and biotech have produced some of the largest single-name moves on the board. Marc Lichtenfeld of the Oxford Club sorts the opportunity by patience: one name for traders, one for the next 12 months, one to hold for a decade.

Lichtenfeld's structural argument starts with the bond market. Healthcare is close to interest rate neutral, and the logic is blunt: if the 10-year yield runs to 5% or 6%, people don't stop taking their medicine. Balance sheets help too. Most biotechs aren't loaded with debt, because pre-revenue companies can't borrow against revenue they don't have. They raise capital by selling equity or converts instead. That makes the sector a rare place where a hawkish surprise doesn't reprice the whole group.

Moderna NASDAQ: MRNA and Merck NYSE: MRK reported that their Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial of intismeran autogene plus Keytruda met its primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival in patients with completely resected stage IIB–IV melanoma. It was the first positive Phase 3 for an mRNA-based cancer therapy. Moderna closed up 177% at $174.38 the day it landed. The earlier Phase 2b work reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49% versus Keytruda alone. Full Phase 3 numbers haven't been released yet.

Shares cooled after the company priced $2.6 billion in convertible notes, and Lichtenfeld reads the consolidation as a bull flag. His timeline is deliberately tight. On a daily chart, he wants confirmation inside a week or two; if the move doesn't materialize, the trade gets abandoned rather than nursed. Elevated short interest is the accelerant he's watching, since forced covering can compound a breakout. For anyone drawn to the long-term story, his suggestion is a starter position rather than a full one.

Pharvaris NASDAQ: PHVS is the name most investors haven't heard of. The roughly $2.4 billion company expects topline CHAPTER-3 data in the third quarter for deucrictibant, an oral therapy for hereditary angioedema, a rare and potentially life-threatening swelling disorder.

Convenience is the wedge. Earlier trial work showed attack reductions in the mid-80% range, against...