Macy's: The Tariff Refund Nobody Has Modeled

Louis Gerard 3.91K Followers Follow Summary Macy’s remains a Buy due to undervaluation, strong free cash flow yield, and ongoing turnaround signals. Q2 guidance targets $4.75B–$4.8B revenue, 6.9%–7.2% adj. EBITDA margin and 29–34 cents adj. EPS, excluding potential tariff refunds. Berkshire Hathaway’s increased stake underscores institutional confidence, while luxury segment growth and real estate monetization are key catalysts. Risks include class action exposure on tariffs, delayed real estate monetization, and downside skew if Q2 results only meet guidance. Getty Images Introduction It has been quite a few months since I last covered Macy’s ( M ), as I initially reviewed its Q1 print and gave it a Buy rating based mainly on the turnaround of the firm. It This article was written by Louis Gerard 3.91K Followers Follow As a detail-oriented investor with a strong foundation in finance and business writing, I focus on analyzing undervalued and disliked companies or industries that have strong fundamentals and good cash flows. I have a particular interest in sectors such as Oil&Gas and consumer goods. Basically, anything that has been unloved for unjustified reasons that could offer substantial returns. Energy Transfer is one of those companies that I came across when no one wanted to touch it and now I can't resolve myself to sell it. I will always focus more on long-term value investing but I can sometimes lose myself in possible deal arbitrage such as with Microsoft/ Activision Blizzard, Spirit Airlines/Jetblue (that one still hurts), and Nippon/U.S. Steel (perfect exit at $50.19). I tend to shun businesses that I can't understand either high-tech or certain consumer goods such as fashion (give me a Levi's jeans). I don't understand why anyone would invest in cryptocurrencies as well. Through Seeking Alpha, I aim to connect with like-minded investors, share insights, and build a collaborative community of individuals seeking superior returns and informed decision-making, currently on a quest to review every public company. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.