First Watch's Drop Is Proof The Market Lacks Taste

Daniel Jones Investing Group Leader Follow Summary First Watch Restaurant Group remains a "Buy" despite a 20.8% share price decline versus S&P 500 gains. FWRG's revenue grew 16.2% YoY in H1 2026, driven by aggressive company-owned restaurant expansion. Management targets 10%–13% annual revenue growth, with EBITDA projected to rise 11%–14% per year long-term. FWRG trades at a discount to peers on EV/EBITDA, offering annualized upside of 10%–15% even at current multiples. Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Crude Value Insights get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More » OlgaMiltsova/iStock via Getty Images One company that I have been quite surprised by over the last several months now has been First Watch Restaurant Group ( FWRG ). Even though revenue for the company continues to grow at a nice clip, and even though shares are This article was written by Daniel Jones 37.83K Followers Follow Daniel is an avid and active professional investor. He runs Crude Value Insights, a value-oriented newsletter aimed at analyzing the cash flows and assessing the value of companies in the oil and gas space. His primary focus is on finding businesses that are trading at a significant discount to their intrinsic value by employing a combination of Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy and a contrarian approach to the market and the securities therein. Learn more. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.