SpaceX: The Valuation And The Unlock Calendar Keep Me On The Sidelines

Steven Fiorillo 42.72K Followers Follow Summary SpaceX, aka Space Exploration Technologies Corp., delivered a strong Q2 with 92% YoY revenue growth across space, connectivity, and AI but trades at 42x forward sales while remaining GAAP unprofitable. SPCX stock's valuation only works if investors underwrite aggressive 4-year growth targets, with the Street projecting $9.28 EPS and $378B revenue by 2030. Massive share unlocks—over 700 million in September and October, with more in December—pose persistent supply overhang risks through 2026. I plan to wait for evidence of $100B ARR converting to profits and to see how the market digests share unlocks before initiating a position. Sven Piper/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Space Exploration Technologies Corp., aka SpaceX ( SPCX ), has been the most heavily watched stock in the market since it went public. The IPO was priced at $135 on June 12th and This article was written by Steven Fiorillo 42.72K Followers Follow I am focused on growth and dividend income. My personal strategy revolves around setting myself up for an easy retirement by creating a portfolio which focuses on compounding dividend income and growth. Dividends are an intricate part of my strategy as I have structured my portfolio to have monthly dividend income which grows through dividend reinvestment and yearly increases. Feel free to reach out to me on Seeking Alpha Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor or professional. This article is my own personal opinion and is not meant to be a recommendation of the purchase or sale of stock. The investments and strategies discussed within this article are solely my personal opinions and commentary on the subject. This article has been written for research and educational purposes only. Anything written in this article does not take into account the reader’s particular investment objectives, financial situation, needs, or personal circumstances and is not intended to be specific to you. Investors should conduct their own research before investing to see if the companies discussed in this article fit into their portfolio parameters. Just because something may be an enticing investment for myself or someone else, it may not be the correct investment for you. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.