Turning Point Brands Targets 10% Modern Oral Nicotine Share by 2030

Turning Point Brands aims to double its modern oral nicotine market share to 10% by 2030, potentially creating a $1 billion business if the U.S. category reaches $10 billion. The company is expanding its FRĒ and ALP nicotine-pouch brands through convenience-store distribution, increased marketing and a larger sales force; it may need to roughly double its store count to meet its target.

Modern oral sales are growing rapidly, but margins are currently pressured by overseas manufacturing, freight and tariffs. Turning Point expects margins could approach 70% with domestic production, while legacy Stoker’s tobacco continues providing strong cash flow.

Turning Point Brands NYSE: TPB is positioning its modern oral nicotine portfolio as its primary growth driver, with CEO Graham Purdy telling investors at the IDEAS Conference that the company aims to reach a double-digit share of the category by the end of the decade. Purdy said the U.S. modern oral nicotine category was approximately $5 billion in 2025 and could grow to at least $10 billion over the next several years. He said Turning Point estimates its current combined online and brick-and-mortar share at roughly 5%, and views a 10% share of a $10 billion market as a potential $1 billion opportunity.

"We are well on our way to getting to double-digit market share by the end of the decade,” Purdy said, citing the company’s online performance and continued expansion into physical retail.

Turning Point’s modern oral business includes the FRĒ and ALP nicotine-pouch brands. FRĒ initially launched through direct-to-consumer channels before expanding into brick-and-mortar retail in the first quarter of 2024. The company later formed a 50/50 joint venture with Tucker Carlson and the Tucker Carlson Network for the ALP brand, which was initially focused primarily on direct-to-consumer sales. Purdy said the company’s multi-brand approach is intended to appeal to different consumer groups. FRĒ is positioned as a high-performance brand and offers nicotine strengths ranging from 3 milligrams to 15 milligrams, while ALP launched in 3-, 6- and 9-milligram formats and is aimed at what Purdy described as a more independent, everyday consumer.

The company believes it holds about half of the direct-to-consumer modern oral market, which Purdy estimated represents less than 10% of total U.S. category sales. He said the online channel has provided proof of concept for its products before broader retail distribution. “We are winning in the online environment,” Purdy said. “We think that we have got a great product that competes for the consumer, and we are now ramping that into bricks-and-mortar.”

Turning Point has increased spending to build brand awareness and expand convenience-store distribution. Purdy said the company entered relationships with UFC, Professional Bull Riders and NASCAR during the second quarter to support FRĒ’s high-performance brand identity. The company also doubled the size of its sales force in 2025 and expects to increase it by another 50% in 2026. The added staffing is intended to support chain-store placements and ongoing account service, Purdy said. Turning Point told investors it expected to increase chain-account distribution by about 70% during the year. The company has paid slotting fees to enter larger convenience-store chains, which Purdy characterized as an upfront investment that should become more leveraged as sales within those stores grow.