FedEx: The Stock Delivered, But The Best Package May Be Next

Agar Capital 5.42K Followers Follow Summary FedEx Corporation earns a Buy rating, but not because FDX stock is cheap. The real story is a structural shift in margins, cash flow, and capital efficiency. The Freight spinoff is simplifying the business, while FedEx is pushing deeper into higher-value B2B and service-critical shipments instead of chasing low-quality volume. Network 2.0 could be the biggest earnings lever: FedEx is targeting roughly $2 billion in annual savings by 2027, with about 65% of eligible volume expected through optimized stations before that. International remains the wildcard. The 8% margin target is aggressive, but even a move toward 4–5% could unlock meaningful upside and force the market to rethink the segment. RiverNorthPhotography/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images Investment Thesis FedEx Corporation ( FDX ) has already had a big run-up in price, currently trading at approximately $332 per share. The stock has increased by about 42 percent this year (and roughly 81 percent in the last This article was written by Agar Capital 5.42K Followers Follow I’m a Portfolio manager (flexible equity funds and private clients), fundamental equity research, macro and geopolitical strategy.Over 10 years across global markets, managing multi-asset strategies and equity portfolios at a European asset manager.I combine top-down macro, bottom-up stock selection and real-time positioning (Bloomberg, models, data).I focus on earnings, tech disruption, policy shifts and capital flows — to identify mispriced opportunities before the market.On Seeking Alpha I share high-conviction ideas, contrarian views and deep breakdowns of both growth and value names.For more insights: follow me on X @AgarCapital Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of FDX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.