SM Energy: Tailwinds From Fading Hedge Drag And Strong Oil Leverage

Elliott Gue 6.32K Followers Follow Summary SM Energy is rated a strong buy with a $59/share target, implying ~65% upside, based on discounted free cash flow modeling. The transformative Civitas acquisition more than doubled SM's acreage and production, but integration costs and assumed debt temporarily obscure free cash flow potential. Underwater oil hedges will weigh on results through 2026, but this headwind diminishes in 2027 and disappears by 2028, unlocking significant free cash flow. Valuation assumes a conservative $80/bbl oil and $3.30/MMBtu to $3.75/MMBtu gas; downside is limited unless long-term oil falls below $70/bbl, while upside exceeds $80/share in a bullish scenario. grandriver/iStock via Getty Images SM Energy ( SM ) is an oil and gas producer with 736,000 net acres spread across 4 operating regions, the Permian Basin of west Texas and New Mexico, the DJ Basin in Colorado, the Uinta Basin in Utah This article was written by Elliott Gue 6.32K Followers Follow Elliott Gue knows energy. Since earning his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from the University of London, Elliott has dedicated himself to learning the ins and outs of this dynamic sector, scouring trade magazines, attending industry conferences, touring facilities and meeting with management teams. For seven years, Elliott Gue shared his expertise and stock-picking abilities with individual investors through a highly regarded, energy-focused research publication. Elliott Gue’s knowledge of the sector and prescient investment calls prompted the official program of the 2008 G-8 Summit in Tokyo to call him “the world’s leading energy strategist.” He has also appeared on CNBC and Bloomberg TV and has been quoted in a number of major publications, including Barron’s, Forbes and the Washington Post. In October 2012, Elliott Gue launched the Energy & Income Advisor (www.EnergyandIncomeAdvisor.com), a semimonthly online newsletter that’s dedicated to uncovering the most profitable opportunities in the energy sector, from growth stocks to high-yielding utilities, royalty trusts and master limited partnerships. Roger Conrad also contributes analysis of master limited partnerships and Canadian energy stocks to the publication. The masthead may have changed, but subscribers can expect the same in-depth analysis and rational assessments of investment opportunities in the energy sector. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of OVV,FANG,SM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.