Wall Street Brunch: Nvidia And Jackson Hole Vie For Market Sway

Nvidia (NVDA) earnings on Wednesday are the week's pivotal event, with options pricing in a 6% share move and sector-wide implications. Key NVDA watchpoints include AI infrastructure demand, product ramp timing, China exposure, and economics of new financing partnerships.

Analysts warn of potential post-earnings volatility for NVDA, with sharp downside risk to $190 if results underwhelm, while upside appears limited.

Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole address Friday will focus on bond market dynamics, with policy tensions influencing yield curve steepening.

Nvidia earnings put the AI trade back in focus.

Kevin Warsh heads to Jackson Hole as bond vigilantes stir.

Canada hits back with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports.

The summer doldrums disappear with a huge week ahead for stocks and bonds. Nvidia ( NVDA ) stars Wednesday with what has become the biggest earnings event on Wall Street. On Friday, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh gives the keynote address at the Jackson Hole Symposium at a time when bond vigilantes are stirring.

With Nvidia, investors will be looking for updates on AI infrastructure demand, product ramp timing, China exposure and the economics of the chipmaker's expanding financing partnerships. Options traders are pricing in a roughly 6% move in Nvidia shares following the report.

Seeking Alpha analyst Mott Capital said investors and traders may be left with " the post-Nvidia earnings hangover " again if the numbers are good but not spectacular. "A decline could be sharp, pushing the stock down by as much as 11% to an important area of technical and options-related support at $190, while upside seems limited," they said.

The results could reverberate across the semiconductor and AI complex. Marvell Technology ( MRVL ), Micron ( MU ), Arm ( ARM ) and Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD ) have shown some of the closest trading correlations with Nvidia following earnings.

Here's how the rest of the earnings calendar shapes up: PDD Holdings ( PDD ) and XPeng ( XPEV ) report Monday. Intuit ( INTU ) reports Tuesday. On Wednesday, Nvidia is joined by CrowdStrike ( CRWD ), Salesforce ( CRM ), HP Inc. ( HPQ ) and Okta ( OKTA ). Marvell ( MRVL ) and Ulta Beauty ( ULTA ) report Thursday.

Looking to Jackson Hole, Warsh will speak at 10 a.m. ET Friday. At his last press conference, Warsh indicated that higher Treasury yields were doing the job of tightening financial conditions for the Fed. But since then, higher yields have spooked the White House, leading Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to boost buybacks of longer-dated debt in an attempt to tamp down rates.

Seeking Alpha analyst Geneva Investor says " the two men want opposite things in the long end ." "Bessent wants the 10-year and 30-year lower, and has said so repeatedly," they said. "Warsh wants a smaller Fed footprint concentrated at the front end of the yield curve, which mechanically raises the long end." "Bessent wants a larger FIMA facility, which expands the balance sheet. Warsh wants the $6.7T balance sheet to come down."

Seeking Alpha analyst Damir Tokic said Warsh will be under the spotlight to address the current bond market selloff , "and he will restate that real rates are rising, while inflation expectations remain anchored, so that will be a dovish message." "However, with this dovish message, the nominal long-term rates will continue to rise, steepening the yield curve," he added.

In the news this weekend, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said his country will impose retaliatory tariffs on a wide range of U.S. imports starting Sept. 8 in response to the Trump administration's new 50% tariffs on Canadian goods. His remarks came after weeks of trade negotiations between the two sides collapsed late Friday.