Blue Bird: An Unexpected Chance To Buy A Long-Term Compounder

Shares of Blue Bird (BLBD) have fallen over 17% from their pre-earnings high despite an August 5 print that beat on revenue and mostly met EPS expectations, with FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guidance raised.

Q3 results were strong: $517M revenue beat, adjusted EPS met expectations, and FY26 EBITDA guidance was raised to $245–250M.

Near-term risks include EPA Clean School Bus Program uncertainty and margin dilution from Micro Bird, but BLBD's diversified alt-power lineup cushions downside.

Long-term tailwinds include an aging North American school bus fleet, bipartisan clean bus funding, and BLBD's leadership in alternative power and EV buses.