[Earnings Deep Dive] Thinca (149A) Q2 FY2026 Results: Accelerating Revenue Growth and Surpassing ¥1.5 Billion in ARR; Mid-to-Long-Term Growth Story Driven by AI Monetization and Capital Alliances

Based on the Q2 FY2026 earnings materials of Thinca Co., Ltd. (Securities Code: 149A), this report provides a detailed analysis of the company's current performance, key KPI trends, and its mid-to-long-term growth strategy.

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1. Mid-Term Vision "Thinca VISION 2030" and the Context of the Investment Phase

Thinca operates a B2B SaaS business centered on its communication platform, "Kaikura." The company has established "Thinca VISION 2030" as its long-term goal, aiming to achieve over ¥6.5 billion in revenue, over ¥1.5 billion in operating profit, a PER of 15x or higher, and a market capitalization of ¥10 billion at an early stage by the fiscal year ending December 2030.

To realize this long-term goal, the company has designated FY2026 as its "largest-ever period of upfront investment" to rapidly expand its future recurring revenue base. The company has planned for an operating loss for the full fiscal year (FY2026) (planned operating loss of ¥579 million), concentrating capital on strengthening sales and marketing structures, developing and investing in AI features, and talent acquisition. A clear roadmap is in place to rapidly recover profitability from the next fiscal year (FY2027) onwards and increase profit margins over the mid-to-long term as a recurring revenue model.

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2. Q2 FY2026 Earnings Highlights and Investment Execution Status

The results for the second quarter of FY2026 (cumulative and standalone) show that revenue growth rates are steadily accelerating despite aggressive upfront investments.

• Q2 Cumulative Revenue : ¥875 million (+24.5% YoY)
• Q2 Cumulative Operating Profit : -¥151 million
• Q2 Standalone Revenue : ¥451 million (+25.2% YoY)
• Q2 Standalone Operating Profit : -¥109 million

The progress rate against the full-year revenue plan (¥1,858 million) is 47.1% , which is an extremely steady trajectory considering the nature of the SaaS model where recurring revenue accumulates toward the second half of the year.

Importance and Background of Slide (PAGE_14)

The slide above illustrates the quarterly trends in revenue and operating profit. This chart is critical because it clearly contrasts the fact that the pace of revenue growth is accelerating quarter by quarter (+25.2% YoY in Q2 standalone) with the changes in profit levels resulting from intentional upfront investments . Looking at past quarterly trends, revenue has been steadily rising, indicating that the strengthening of the organizational structure and upselling measures are bearing fruit. The operating loss (-¥109 million) is not a sudden deterioration in performance, but rather the result of executing growth investments as planned (with ¥879 million expected to be invested by Q2, equivalent to 89.3% of the plan), confirming that the groundwork for the harvest period is being laid steadily.

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3. Soundness of the Recurring Revenue Model and Detailed KPI Analysis

"Kaikura," the company's core business, is a monthly subscription-based recurring business. The key KPIs demonstrating its growth and sustainability all show robust expansion.

• ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) : ¥1,520 million (+20.2% YoY)
• ARPU (Average Revenue Per User/Month) : ¥39,460 (+8.2% YoY)
• Number of Customers (Contracted Companies) : 3,366 (+11.5% YoY)
• ARPA (Average Revenue Per Account/Month) : ¥20,067 (+8.2% YoY)
• Number of Active User Locations : 6,619 (+11.4% YoY)
• Monthly Churn Rate : 0.35% (-0.03pt YoY)

Importance and Background of Slide (PAGE_15)

This KPI highlight slide is the core document summarizing the "growth equation" of Thinca's business model. It visually demonstrates with high resolution that the driving force behind the expansion of ARR to the ¥1.5 billion scale is achieved not only by an increase in the number of customers but also by the dual engine of rising ARPU (unit price) . Particularly noteworthy is the extremely low monthly churn rate of 0.35% . Generally, a monthly churn rate of 2.00% or less is considered a healthy benchmark for B2B SaaS (especially for SMEs), and the company maintains a high level of customer engagement far below that level. Because the company is accumulating customers and increasing unit prices while maintaining an extremely low churn rate (a bucket with no holes), the structure allows for highly predictable future cash flows.

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4. Deepening AI Strategy and Capital Alliance with Fixstars

Thinca is rapidly promoting unit price increases (ARPU growth) and the establishment of competitive advantages through AI functions , moving beyond its previous focus on "visualizing phone and conversation data."

In the first half of 2026, the company successively released AI features such as "AI Daily Report," "AI Chat," and "AI Face-to-Face Recording." By transitioning previously free AI features into paid options , the company has established a system to capture additional orders (upselling) from existing customers. Furthermore, it has introduced "AI Insurance Coach" in response to the revised Insurance Business Act enacted in June 2026, and is expanding features to address customer harassment , which will become a corporate obligation in October.

Additionally, to solidify its technical foundation, the company entered into a capital and business alliance with Fixstars Corporation (June 2026), which possesses advanced enterprise AI development expertise.

Importance and Background of Slide (PAGE_19)

The slide above shows the company's "AI Vision" and the roadmap to achieve it. This material is important because it clearly expresses the company's intent to evolve from an "externally dependent model" that merely calls external AI models (like LLMs) to an "independent AI engine development model" that retains advanced AI technology and infrastructure in-house . By fusing the "real conversation data accumulated at over 6,600 locations nationwide" held by Thinca with the "implementation technology to run AI at high speed and low cost" held by Fixstars, a system has been built to develop unique AI services that competitors cannot imitate. This is expected to establish a high-margin product foundation that is not susceptible to price competition.

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5. Launch of New Businesses and Expansion of Industry-Specific Customer Base

The company has launched three new businesses simultaneously, utilizing its accumulated customer base and AI knowledge, rather than relying solely on standalone sales of "Kaikura."

1. Kaikura Phone : Established a dedicated sales team to capture orders immediately by leveraging existing touchpoints.
2. AI Contract Development : Providing technical know-how cultivated through "Kaikura" AI development to external companies; projects are currently underway.
3. AI Consulting : Supporting the AI transformation of client companies based on internal experience in launching AI utilization.

All these new areas have secured orders immediately after launch and are expected to be new growth drivers from the next fiscal year onwards.

Regarding industry trends, expansion in the automotive industry is particularly notable. Of the 6,619 active locations as of Q2, the automotive industry accounts for 2,651 locations (40.1% of the total) . Of the 680 locations added over the past year, 63.8% (434 locations) are automotive-related. The company's share of stores and companies among major dealers (Toyota, Honda, Daihatsu, etc.) is steadily increasing, and it is becoming the de facto standard in this specific industry.

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6. Expansion of Sales Network and Measures for the Second Half

To re-accelerate the speed of customer acquisition from the second half onwards, alliance measures through a capital and business alliance with SB C&S Corp. are in full swing.

• Exhibitions and Co-hosted Webinars : Exhibiting at exhibitions hosted by SB C&S and nationwide resellers, as well as at "SaaS Showrooms" in 8 cities across Japan.
• Developing Influential Agency Networks : Starting from Eastern Japan, promoting introduction proposals to influential agencies with strong local sales networks.
• Strengthening Relationships through Resident Staff : Commenced weekly residency at SB C&S to promote proactive lead referrals and order acquisition from partner sales teams through study sessions.

In addition to increasing the size of its direct sales team (the number of employees increased by 22, or +31%, compared to the first half of the previous year, to 93), the company has significantly strengthened its ability to approach potential customers, including those in regional markets, by utilizing this nationwide reseller network.

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7. Conclusion

The Q2 FY2026 earnings of Thinca Co., Ltd. demonstrate that the "construction of a solid foundation for future explosive growth" is proceeding smoothly.

• Revenue growth has accelerated to +25.2% YoY , and the strategic deficit plan for 2026 is functioning as an investment for future monetization.
• While maintaining highly healthy stock metrics of ¥1.52 billion in ARR and a 0.35% churn rate , an upward trend in ARPU (unit price) is evident due to AI monetization.
• Initiatives to enhance mid-to-long-term competitiveness, such as developing proprietary AI through the capital alliance with Fixstars and securing a nationwide sales network through collaboration with SB C&S, have been completed.

Whether the transition process from upfront investment to the harvest period proceeds as planned toward the achievement of "Thinca VISION 2030" in 2030 will remain a key point to watch.