Marathon Petroleum: Russian Refined Exports May Be Indefinitely Out Of The Market

Marathon Petroleum is well-positioned amid global refining tightness, benefiting from curtailed Russian exports and a strong US refining footprint. MPC’s 65% stake in MPLX LP provides stable EBITDA, raising its valuation but limiting upside compared to more operationally levered peers. In a base case with Russian exports curtailed, I see 30% upside to a $387 YE27 price target, supported by dividends and buybacks. I rate MPC a Hold, preferring DINO and PBF for higher leverage to refining margins and greater potential upside in bullish scenarios.