Flutter Entertainment price target trimmed on increased promotional spending

Flutter Entertainment PLC ( LSE:FLTR NYSE:FLUT ) ’s price target was lowered to $180 from $210 by Jefferies, which cut its earnings estimates following the company’s decision to increase promotional spending in the US during the second half of 2026.

Jefferies cut its Group EBITDA estimates by 8% for 2027 and 13% for 2028, with the reductions entirely reflecting lower US estimates. The firm left its International estimates unchanged and highlighted Flutter’s second quarter results, which were broadly ahead of expectations, including a 3% Group EBITDA beat, with US EBITDA 11% above its forecast and International EBITDA 3% ahead.

Jefferies highlighted a new $270 million investment in US online sportsbook promotions for the second half of 2026 as the main factor weighing on its estimates. The investment is intended to accelerate FanDuel’s sportsbook momentum and follows stronger-than-expected customer reactivation around the NBA Finals and World Cup, with record online sportsbook active users in June and July.

The firm wrote that the increased promotional spending raises questions over whether the investment represents a temporary increase or a longer-term shift in strategy. Jefferies expects US promotional spending to rise to about 6% of revenue in the second half of 2026, compared with the 4% to 5% range seen in recent periods, and expects it could remain elevated through 2027 before eventually returning to around 4%.

Jefferies wrote that it does not anticipate promotions remaining elevated indefinitely, instead viewing the increase as a “bump-and-run” strategy aimed at re-engaging lapsed customers.