Nutrien: The Market Misjudges The Structural Gas Arbitrage And The Looming Ag Cycle

Elina Selianska 808 Followers Follow Summary Nutrien Ltd. remains a Buy as current market pricing ignores dual catalysts: global LNG disruption and a reversal in the agricultural cycle. NTR's North American nitrogen assets benefit from structurally cheap gas, ensuring elevated margins for 2–3 years amid global LNG capacity outages. Rising global food prices and pent-up fertilizer demand set the stage for a cyclical upturn in NTR's potash, phosphate, and retail segments. With NTR shares trading at ~$65 and a forward P/E of 12x, NTR is undervalued; management is reducing capex and prioritizing share buybacks. Volokhatiuk/iStock via Getty Images When I released an article about Nutrien Ltd. ( NTR ) with a Buy recommendation in April, the shares traded around the $75 mark. Since then, the broader market dragged quotes lower into a range of $64–$65. Right now the market This article was written by Elina Selianska 808 Followers Follow I am a private investor with 10 years of experience in the stock market. My approach to fundamental analysis probably differs from the classical method. I am firmly convinced: first, you must understand the business, and only after that look at the figures. For me, investing is an attempt to understand the place of a company or an asset in the future. Financial reports reflect only the past and the present. Therefore, my analysis always begins with an attempt to thoroughly understand the essence of the company itself. On what is this business really built? What value does it create today? And, most importantly, how will this business be integrated into the economy of tomorrow? I evaluate ideas through the prism of a long-term perspective. Before opening a trade, I must clearly see the place of this company in the world in 5–10 years. I am interested in what management is doing right now in order to capture the markets of the future. Multipliers, balances, and charts are secondary — they should only confirm the fundamental idea, not dictate it. I write on Seeking Alpha to share exactly this approach: helping readers see the real business behind dry numbers and evaluate its future potential. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.