Wednesday's crucial CPI report will show tamer inflation, according to prediction markets

Crucial CPI report will show tame inflation, prediction markets show Skip Navigation Markets Business Investing Tech Politics & Policy Video Watchlist Investing Club PRO Livestream Menu Key Points Kalshi traders see a less than 55% chance that July's consumer price index reading comes in above 3.3% on a 12-month basis and 15% odds that CPI is above 3.4%. The Dow Jones consensus estimate calls for headline inflation to increase by 3.4%. For a separate event contract, Kalshi traders give a 47% chance that the core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy prices, comes in above 2.4% and just an 11% chance that it is above 2.5%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect July's core inflation reading to be 2.5%, cooler than the June reading of 2.6%. A shopper carries a basket of products at a grocery store in Wilmington, North Carolina, US, on Saturday, Aug. 8, 2026. Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty Images Prediction market traders expect July's consumer price index will be relatively tame, coming in below the Dow Jones consensus forecast. Monday's odds on Kalshi show traders see a less than 55% likelihood that July's CPI reading comes in above 3.3% on a year-over-year basis. They see a 15% chance that CPI comes in hotter than 3.4%. The event contract on Kalshi, asking what will be the year-over-year rate for July's CPI, will be verified by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In comparison, economists polled by Dow Jones see the headline inflation number coming in at 3.4%, slightly cooler than the 3.5% rate reported in June. The CPI measures the average change over time in consumer prices for goods and services. It's a significant report for the Federal Reserve , which will consider the data when policymakers decide how to proceed on rates at their next meeting in September. The annual inflation rate in June came at 3.5% which was less than the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 3.8%. June's CPI also fell 0.4% on a month-over-month basis, which was the biggest decline in more than six years thanks to a temporary drop in energy prices. In a separate event contract, Kalshi traders see a 47% likelihood that July's core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, comes in above 2.4%. They see just an 11% chance that it is above 2.5%. In comparison, the Dow Jones consensus estimate for core inflation calls for a 2.5% increase in July over the past 12 months. That compares to June's reading of 2.6%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will issue the CPI report on Wednesday morning. Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment. Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.