Nasdaq 100: Tech Stocks Lead Monday's Pre-Market Bid Ahead of CPI

Nasdaq buyers lead Monday’s bid after weak payrolls cut September hike odds, but CPI holds the real answer. WTI above $79 revives inflation risk as Hormuz talks stall, putting the payrolls-driven stock rally to the test. A soft CPI print keeps yields down and supports tech stocks; a hot number puts the Fed rate trade back in play.

The Nasdaq is carrying the premarket bid Monday because Friday’s payrolls miss knocked September hike odds down to 44% from 67% a week ago. The S&P 500 closed last week at a record. All three indexes posted their best weekly gains since April. That gives buyers the trend but it also leaves them stretched heading into Wednesday’s CPI report, which can put the inflation argument right back in front of a committee that still has hawks on record. Crude is back above $79 after Iran denied direct Hormuz negotiations over the weekend. The Dow is flat. The Nasdaq minor trend is up but the main trend is still down, and the split between growth stocks running and the rest of the market waiting tells you this rally is not broad yet. Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.46%. S&P 500 futures are higher by 0.16%. Dow futures are near unchanged.

July payrolls fell by 23,000 jobs when the market expected an 80,000 gain. Prior months were revised lower. Wages slowed. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% but participation slipped with it. That is not a report the Fed hikes into, and the Nasdaq caught the strongest bid Friday because lower rate odds reduce the pressure on growth valuations. September hike probability dropped to about 44%. Nobody is trading a rate cut. The market is trading a Fed that has a much harder time acting when hiring is contracting and wages are cooling. That setup favors the high-multiple technology names that led last week and it is why the Nasdaq is leading again Monday morning.

Iran denied direct negotiations over the weekend. President Trump said the two sides were only semi-negotiating. WTI crude is back above $79 after rising about 1% Sunday. That matters because crude is still the fastest route from the Middle East to inflation expectations, Treasury yields and the Fed. Last week’s oil drop did half the work for stocks. It removed part of the inflation argument right when payrolls removed the labor-market argument for September. If Hormuz headlines push crude back toward last month’s levels, that relief disappears and CPI becomes even more important.

Headline CPI is expected at 3.4% year-over-year. Core at 2.5%. The market just repriced September on one weak payrolls report and now it has to find out whether inflation cooperates or contradicts. Crude back above $79 with Hormuz talks stalling is not the setup bulls want heading into that number. A soft print and this rally keeps going. A hot one and Friday’s winners become Wednesday’s problem. PPI Thursday and retail sales Friday pile on after that.

Super Micro Computer and CoreWeave report this week along with Applied Materials , Cisco , On Holding and Cava . The market has been punishing AI names that spend without showing returns. One bad guide from any of these can still move a stock 10% or more even with CPI dominating the calendar.