Willis Lease Finance: A Rough Road Ahead

Willis's Q2 results have shown us a demand softening, which caused maintenance reserves to decline and the utilization rate to drop from 87% to 85% YoY. The management fees segment grew significantly by 113%, but given that the firm still accrues most of its revenue from the leasing business, we still need to value against PB. The current PB ratio is widely higher than the 5-year historical level; while this is a true reflection of the current market dynamics, it leaves no margin of safety.

When there was a supply/demand mismatch in the aerospace sector, driven by delayed aircraft deliveries and a bottleneck in MRO capacity, I wrote bullish articles on asset lessors that were strategically positioned to benefit from