RXO Still Unable To Capture Upcycle Economics, And Now At 20x Cycle-Average Earnings

Quipus Capital 1.78K Followers Follow Summary RXO, Inc. delivered strong Q2 '26 revenue growth, but profits and margins failed to improve, with gross profit declining and adjusted EBITDA flat. Most revenue gains stemmed from higher freight rates and fuel prices, not underlying business economics, while working capital needs and leverage increased. Management targets mid-single-digit EBITDA margins through the cycle, but current valuation implies ~20x normalized earnings, even under optimistic scenarios. I maintain a Hold rating on RXO, citing unattractive risk/reward for a cyclical business with low returns on capital and persistent margin pressures. Bongkod Worakandecha/iStock via Getty Images RXO, Inc. ( RXO ) recently released its Q2 '26 results . The headline numbers looked good, with revenue growing rapidly and brokerage volumes returning to growth. However, below revenues, I don't think the quarter showed much improvement in the economics This article was written by Quipus Capital 1.78K Followers Follow Long-only investment, evaluating companies from an operational, buy-and-hold perspective.Quipus Capital does not focus on market-driven dynamics and future price action. Instead, our articles focus on operational aspects, understanding the long-term earnings power of companies, the competitive dynamics of the industries where they participate, and buying companies that we would like to hold independently of how the price moves in the future. Most QC calls will be holds, and that is by design. Only a very small fraction of companies should be a buy at any point in time. However, hold articles provide important information for future investors and a healthy dose of skepticism to a relatively bullish-biased market.Disclaimer: All of the author's articles are written on an "as is" basis and without warranty. They represent the author's opinion only and in no way constitute professional investment advice. It is the responsibility of the reader to conduct their due diligence and seek investment advice from a licensed professional before making any investment decisions. The author disclaims all liability for any actions taken based on the information contained in any articles published. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.