DraftKings' Prediction Markets Push Is Reshaping Its National Growth Strategy

DraftKings is positioning itself not simply as a sportsbook operator, but as a nationwide sports commerce platform capable of acquiring, engaging and monetizing customers across multiple products.

As company executives stressed to investors during a second-quarter 2026 earnings call Friday (Aug. 7), prediction markets are becoming central to that ambition. “We delivered a strong second quarter and enter the back half of the year with real momentum, as our core business grew across handle, users and engagement,” DraftKings Co-Founder and CEO Jason Robins said in a Friday press release. “Our super app is now live nationwide, and Predictions is already growing faster than we anticipated. The similarity of Predictions customer metrics to Sportsbook customer metrics, our advantaged LTV position and our playbook to innovate on a leading Predictions offering all underpin our confidence that we can win the category.”

DraftKings generated $115 million in adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter, while customer-friendly sports outcomes created an approximately $80 million revenue headwind. Management nevertheless maintained its full-year revenue guidance of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $700 million to $900 million. Its core business remains on track to generate roughly $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA this year.

DraftKings said customer acquisition increased nearly 75% year over year during the second quarter, helped by the NBA Finals and World Cup. The company acquired roughly 30% more customers than expected while spending only about 10% more than planned, with acquisition costs coming in approximately 25% better than anticipated.

Some of those customers are coming from markets DraftKings historically could not reach through regulated sports betting. Its prediction product is now available nationally through the broader DraftKings Sports app. More than 600,000 customers have used predictions this year, and management said adoption has exceeded expectations. Annualized trading volume increased from $2.3 billion to $11 billion between April and July.

That changes the geographic logic of DraftKings’ business. Instead of waiting for large states such as California and Texas to legalize online sports betting, DraftKings can establish customer relationships there through prediction markets today. Robins said consumers in states without legal sportsbooks are showing profiles similar to sportsbook customers elsewhere. Management said it sees only about 1% customer overlap between its sportsbook users and customers of the largest prediction market operator in states where onlin...