Traders push GPT-6 bets into the autumn after OpenAI names Astra

Tech Written by: Ian Lyall 11:10 Tue 04 Aug 2026 --> Disclaimer No investment advice About this content Editorial Standards & Policies Share article About this content × About Ian Lyall Ian Lyall, a seasoned journalist and editor, brings over three decades of experience to his role as Managing Editor at Proactive. Overseeing Proactive's editorial and broadcast operations across six offices on three continents, Ian is responsible for quality control, editorial policy, and content production. He directs the creation of 50,000 pieces of real-time news, feature articles, and filmed interviews annually. Prior to Proactive, Ian helped lead the business output at the Daily... Read more About the publisher Proactive financial news and online broadcast teams provide fast, accessible, informative and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience. All our content is produced independently by our experienced and qualified teams of news journalists. Proactive news team spans the world’s key finance and investing hubs with bureaus and studios in London, New York, Toronto, Vancouver, Sydney and Perth. We are experts in medium and small-cap markets, we also keep our community up to date with blue-chip companies, commodities and broader investment stories. This is content that excites and engages motivated private investors. The team delivers news and unique insights across the market including but not confined to: biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto and emerging digital and EV technologies. Use of technology Proactive has always been a forward looking and enthusiastic technology adopter. Our human content creators are equipped with many decades of valuable expertise and experience. The team also has access to and use technologies to assist and enhance workflows. Proactive will on occasion use automation and software tools, including generative AI. Nevertheless, all content published by Proactive is edited and authored by humans, in line with best practice in regard to content production and search engine optimisation. OpenAI View Price & Profile Traders push GPT-6 bets into the autumn after OpenAI names Astra Published: 11:10 04 Aug 2026 BST Prediction market traders have all but abandoned the idea that OpenAI will release GPT-6 this month, shifting their money instead towards a launch late in the year. Contracts on Polymarket, where users bet real money on future events, now price the chance of a public GPT-6 release by 7 August at under 1%. The odds for 21 August have fallen 35% to 14%, and those for 31 August are down 42% to 21%. Money has moved out along the calendar rather than out of the market altogether. The probability of a release by 30 September has risen 12% to 62%, while 31 December is up 39% to 90%. Nearly $915,000 has been staked across the market. The repricing follows OpenAI's announcement on 1 August that its next major model family will be called Astra. The company introduced it not with a product launch but with a research report claiming an internal version had resolved ten open problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science. Those included disproving Connes's rigidity conjecture, proving Ehrhart's volume conjecture, and delivering the first improvement to the general upper bound on sphere-packing density since 1978. Each proof shipped with a certificate in Lean, a language that forces every logical step to be machine-checkable. OpenAI put the total compute cost of the ten solutions at roughly $2,000. What it did not provide was a release date, pricing, a model card or any indication of whether Astra will ship as GPT-6, as another point release in the GPT-5 family, or as a separate line entirely. The market rules are strict on that distinction. Anything branded GPT-5.5 or similar does not count, and closed or private access will not resolve the contracts. OpenAI has released seven GPT-5 variants in under a year, most recently GPT-5.6 on 9 July, without ever reaching the generational number traders are waiting for. Continue reading