ASML: The Peak Is In

ASML Holding N.V. maintains dominance in EUV lithography and is a prime beneficiary of the AI-driven semiconductor expansion. Despite robust fundamentals and strong near-term demand, the current valuation already prices in an almost flawless, prolonged AI supercycle scenario. Expansion plans and High-NA EUV commercialization show management confidence, but leave little margin for error if capital spending normalizes. I assign a Sell rating, as the risk/reward profile is unattractive; even minor disappointments or slower investment cycles could pressure ASML’s valuation.