Wall Street Brunch: SpaceX's Earnings Debut

SpaceX (SPCX) will deliver its first public earnings report, with focus on Starlink growth, Starship timeline, and capital spending. SPCX shares have fallen over 50% from peak and are 20% below the IPO price, with supply risks largely priced in according to bullish Wall Street targets.

Earnings this week also include Palantir, AMD, Eli Lilly, Uber, and Berkshire Hathaway, while macro focus remains on jobs data and bond market moves.

SpaceX ( SPCX ) will issue its first earnings report as a public company on Wednesday. Major topics are expected to include Starlink ( STRLK ) growth, the Starship timeline and capital spending plans. Elon Musk is also expected to participate on the conference call.

Shares are down more than 50% from their intraday peak of around $225 and roughly 20% below the $135 IPO price.

Seeking Alpha analyst Mike Zaccardi says that despite heavy selling and upcoming share unlocks, the recent drawdown largely prices in those supply risks, while major Wall Street price targets, including Morgan Stanley's $300 target, remain bullish.

But Seeking Alpha analyst Julia Ostian justifies her Strong Sell rating by pointing to extreme short interest, a looming wave of new shares and skepticism about the sustainability of the AI business and its underlying customer demand.

Here's how the rest of the earnings calendar shapes up: Palantir ( PLTR ) and Snap ( SNAP ) report on Monday. AMD ( AMD ), Merck ( MRK ) and Pfizer ( PFE ) join SpaceX. ( SPCX ) on Tuesday. Eli Lilly ( LLY ), Novo Nordisk ( NVO ) and Uber ( UBER ) report on Wednesday. ConocoPhillips ( COP ) and Airbnb ( ABNB ) are on deck Thursday. Take-Two Interactive Software ( TTWO ) and Oklo ( OKLO ) report Friday. And Berkshire Hathaway ( BRK.A ) ( BRK.B ) sticks with its tradition of releasing earnings on Saturday.

Traders will get the first jobs report of the new Fed regime, where the bond market is expected to do the heavy lifting on financial conditions. The long bond remains near a 19-year high after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference did little to ease inflation concerns. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 86K in July, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% and average hourly earnings increasing 0.3%.

Wells Fargo says small-business hiring plans and initial jobless claims suggest layoffs remain limited. But their economists also note that Indeed job postings "are hovering below year-ago levels, while ADP's measure of weekly private-sector payroll growth has slowed since the spring." The potential for a rebound in the labor force participation rate also adds some upside risk to the unemployment rate, Wells Fargo said.

President Donald Trump said he had suspended planned military strikes because negotiations could soon reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, however, quickly denied both Trump's account and reports that an agreement had been reached, leaving energy markets and regional security caught between competing narratives.

Citigroup ( C ) goes ex-dividend on Monday and will pay on August 28. MetLife ( MET ) goes ex-dividend on Tuesday, with a payout date of Sept. 8. Carnival ( C CL) and JB Hunt ( JBHT ) both go ex-dividend on Friday. Carnival pays on August 28, while JB Hunt pays on August 21.