What I'm Watching In August: AI, Inflation, And Renewed Optimism

I enter August with a cautiously optimistic outlook, expecting macro factors to regain focus as idiosyncratic volatility fades post-earnings season. Key macro events—July CPI, PCE, and Jackson Hole—will shape rate expectations; I see inflation easing but not yet reaching the Fed’s 2% target. Current rate market pricing appears overly punitive; I anticipate a supportive setup for equities if inflation trends lower and Fed commentary is dovish. Critical earnings from PLTR, CAT, UBER, HD, and NVDA will provide insight into sector health, consumer resilience, and AI-driven growth trajectories. As the market ( SPY ) begins to make progress into the back half of the year and calendar Q2 earnings season is largely behind us, the idiosyncratic stories should start to quiet down a bit, paving This article was written by Passage Research 5.81K Followers Follow Passage Research focuses on identifying variant perception through a blend of fundamental analysis and alternative data. The research process combines detailed financial modeling with real-time datasets to underwrite earnings power, margin durability, and forward expectations.The author has spent over a decade on Wall Street, most recently spending the last five years working in the hedge fund industry as an analyst. Typical coverage spans consumer, TMT, industrials and special situations, with an emphasis on asymmetric risk/reward and catalyst-driven opportunities. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SPY either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that do include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.