Expand: The Most Beta Natural Gas Stock

Expand Energy (EXE) is upgraded to Strong Buy, leveraging LNG export growth and AI-driven data center demand for natural gas. EXE, the largest US nat gas producer post-merger, is highly sensitive to Henry Hub prices due to lack of midstream integration. A 50% EBITDA uplift by 2028 is possible if Henry Hub prices rise as EIA projects, with current forecasts not reflecting this upside. EXE trades at a steep discount to peers, with reputational overhangs but substantial re-rating potential if capital discipline is maintained.