Makuake, Inc. (4479) Q3 FY2026 Earnings Analysis: Record-High Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and Project Unit Prices Drive Significant Upward Revision of Full-Year Forecasts

Makuake, Inc.'s financial results for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending September 2026 demonstrate robust growth, with quarterly Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and net sales reaching all-time highs . The company's performance has been strongly driven by a series of large-scale projects on its flagship "Makuake" platform—a service for supporting the purchase of new products and experiences—particularly in the categories of AI gadgets and high-performance home appliances.

This report provides a detailed analysis of the company's performance highlights, KPI trends, cost structure, upward revision of full-year forecasts, and progress on its medium-term management plan, centered on 10 key topics derived from the earnings materials.

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1. Q3 Performance Highlights: Significant Revenue and Profit Growth with Record GMV

For the third quarter of the fiscal year ending September 2026 (Q3 standalone), the company reported net sales of 1,579 million yen (+21.6% YoY) and operating profit of 276 million yen (+74.3% YoY) . Looking at the cumulative results for the first nine months (Q1-Q3), the company achieved substantial growth with net sales of 4,392 million yen (+31.1% YoY) and operating profit of 844 million yen (+101.0% YoY) .

Underpinning this growth is the record-breaking expansion of GMV , the comprehensive transaction metric on the platform.

As shown in the graph above, GMV for Q3 FY2026 reached 6,216 million yen (+27.2% YoY, +21.7% QoQ) , marking an all-time high on a quarterly basis. The breakthrough past the 6 billion yen threshold—having previously hovered in the 4 billion to 5 billion yen range—is attributed to the creation of large-scale, high-unit-price projects and strong purchasing intent from supporters.

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2. Structural Breakdown of Key KPIs: Significant Rise in Project Unit Prices

Monthly support purchase amounts (GMV) for the company's core business can be broken down into "Number of active projects per month" × "Monthly project unit price." The trends for these KPIs in Q3 are as follows:

• Number of active projects per month : 1,055 (+2.5% YoY)
• Monthly project unit price : 1.88 million yen (+22.2% YoY)

This slide is one of the most critical pieces of data for understanding the company's growth mechanism. While the number of projects remained steady with a slight increase at 1,055, the project unit price reached a record high of 1.88 million yen , showing a significant jump.

The surge in unit prices is attributed to the success of acquisition strategies focused on gadgets and home appliances, as well as high-precision targeting enabled by AI-driven project analysis (Makuake Insight). The strategy of prioritizing the value of each project over the sheer volume of projects is yielding excellent results.

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3. Hit Project Trends: Breaking All-Time Support Purchase Records

Notably, Q3 saw the emergence of multiple ultra-large-scale projects that shattered the platform's all-time records:

• "Rokid Smart AI Glasses" : Attracted 636.73 million yen from 7,413 supporters, breaking the record for the highest support purchase amount in Makuake's history for the first time in approximately five years.
• Home Projector "Elfin Flip" : Surpassed 50 million yen in one hour and 200 million yen in 24 hours, becoming the fastest project in Makuake history to exceed 500 million yen, ultimately setting a new all-time record .

These cases solidify Makuake's position not merely as a fundraising venue, but as a premier marketing platform for "debuting" cutting-edge technology and next-generation devices to the world.

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4. Expanding Customer Base: From National Brands to Regional and SDGs Projects

The platform's utility is expanding from emerging startups and SMEs to major national brands.

• SMEs and Startups : Significant growth in the company's core AI gadget and high-performance appliance sectors, such as AI smart rings (68.13 million yen) and cordless high-pressure washers (194.53 million yen).
• Major Corporations (National Brands) : Companies such as NTT Docomo , Mizuno , Logos Corporation , and Nishikawa have adopted the platform as a venue for creating new businesses and categories, using it as a means to verify customer response directly while mitigating the risks of new business development.
• Regional Revitalization and SDGs : Diversification of highly resonant SDGs-related projects continues, including crowdfunding to protect the 1,150-year-old "Kyoto Gion Matsuri," sustainable sake, and upcycled products utilizing unused resources (such as citrus peels).

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5. Profitability, Cost Structure, and Upfront Investment

In terms of the revenue structure, the take rate (commission rate) and management of SG&A expenses are key factors.

• Take Rate and Gross Profit : The Q3 take rate was 27.9% , a slight QoQ decrease due to adjustments associated with the creation of ultra-large projects. However, due to the rapid increase in GMV, gross profit grew steadily to 1,143 million yen (+19.1% YoY) .
• SG&A Trends : Q3 SG&A expenses were 867 million yen (+8.2% YoY) . Factors included base salary increases and higher personnel costs (403 million yen) following a revision of the evaluation system, as well as increased development and maintenance costs. However, because top-line growth outpaced these expenses, the company maintained a high operating profit margin of 17.5% .
• Strategic Upfront Investment : The company actively invested in data infrastructure, new Makuake feature development, and the enhancement of AI-powered "Makuake Insight." The deferral of some planned Q3 investments to Q4 also contributed to the upward deviation in Q3 operating profit.

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6. Deepening and Expanding the PDG Cycle (Plan-Debut-Growth)

Makuake is evolving from a simple crowdfunding business into a "Empathy Circulation Platform (PDG Cycle)" that provides end-to-end support from product planning to sales expansion.

1. Plan : Integrated AI functions into the "Makuake Insight" product development support tool. AI chatbots conduct interviews with business operators and analyze/extract raw consumer feedback to support development decision-making.
2. Debut : In addition to pre-sales on Makuake, the company hosts real-world experiential pop-ups such as "Makuake GINZA TOUCH LOUNGE" (SoftBank Ginza) to maximize offline experiential value.
3. Growth : Strengthened operation of the "Makuake STORE Rakuten Ichiba" shop. Achievements as a general sales channel after test marketing are steadily expanding, including the launch of the special "Diggly" page and winning the "Rakuten Shop of the Month" award.

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7. Significant Upward Revision of Full-Year Forecasts

Following the extremely strong performance through the third quarter, the company announced an upward revision of its full-year earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending September 2026 .

The main numerical targets after the upward revision are as follows:

• GMV : 20,700 million yen (+17.3% YoY) Projected record high
• Net Sales : 5,400 million yen (+18.0% YoY)
• Operating Profit : 670 million yen to 800 million yen (+49.8% to +78.9% YoY)
• Ordinary Profit : 670 million yen to 800 million yen (+41.0% to +68.3% YoY)
• Net Income : 590 million yen to 700 million yen (+44.9% to +71.9% YoY)

Following the previous fiscal year, the company expects to achieve double-digit growth in both sales and profit. Operating profit, in particular, is planned for a significant increase, ranging from approximately 1.5x to 1.8x the previous year's level.

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8. Outlook: Achieving Medium-Term Management Plan Goals "One Year Ahead of Schedule"

In its current medium-term management plan (FY2025–FY2027), the company had set targets of 5.2 billion yen in net sales and 700 million yen in operating profit for the final year (FY2027).

However, with the revised full-year forecast for FY2026 (net sales of 5.4 billion yen, operating profit of 670–800 million yen), the company is now in a position to achieve its medium-term management plan targets one year ahead of schedule . Accordingly, the company is proceeding with the formulation of new growth visions and the next management plan while monitoring the final results for the current fiscal year.

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Summary

Makuake, Inc.'s Q3 FY2026 earnings report is filled with highly positive topics, including record-high GMV and project unit prices driven by the success of large-scale, high-value projects, enhanced platform value through the PDG cycle , and the upward revision of full-year forecasts with the potential to achieve medium-term goals a year early . The company continues to follow a sustainable growth trajectory while maintaining upfront investments to strengthen its competitiveness in the second half of the year.