Bond Markets Getting Oversold; Fed Funds Futures Indicate The FOMC Will Stand Pat On July 29

Based on CME fed funds futures, there is a 65.8% chance that the fed funds futures remain unchanged as of the Wednesday afternoon release, so you can ignore the mainstream financial media hand-wringing. Fed funds futures for the September ’26 FOMC meeting are looking at a 25 bp hike, which would bring the midpoint of the fed funds range from 3.625% currently to 3.875%. For this week’s meeting, don’t expect any hike but watch the wording of the release. The Barclays Aggregate’s total return as of June 30, ’26 was 1.39%, while corporate high-yield hasn’t performed much better. International and emerging markets income have performed pretty well versus the bond market asset classes in the last year, 18 months. The bond market looks to be setting up for a rally in the next week or two, and if yields drop, stocks could find a bid as well.

Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s major guru of everything fixed income - Blackrock’s Global Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income - holds a brief webinar or conference call (starts at 7 am central, so you have to be an early riser), usually the last