Old National Bancorp: Compounder Mispriced As An M&A Story

Old National Bancorp is rated Buy with a $30 price target, reflecting a shift from M&A to a durable organic growth model. Q2 delivered record efficiency (45.2%), 13% YoY revenue growth, and a raised loan growth outlook to 6%-8% YoY, underpinned by a $5.6B pipeline. ONB’s TBV per share compounded 14% YoY while returning $163M to shareholders, and the forward P/E of 10x undervalues its ROTCE profile. Disciplined deposit strategy, fee income diversification, and operational efficiency with AI investments are driving sustained positive operating leverage.

Tracking the mid-cap regional bank space started for us in early 2026 when we screened for names delivering positive operating leverage without heavy reliance on cost synergies from acquisitions. ONB has come at the top