RTX and Lockheed Earnings: Can Strong Guidance Reset the Defense Trade?

RTX and Lockheed Martin both beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates, sending shares up 7% and 10%, respectively, and expanding their record contract backlogs. Neither company's backlog yet reflects the resumed Iran conflict, while an unenacted 2027 NDAA could threaten multiyear defense procurement contracts if not signed by October 1. Lockheed's backlog is nearly all defense-related with limited commodity risk, whereas RTX's backlog is 58% exposed to commercial aerospace risks like fuel prices and airline capacity. The war trade has resumed in July, and earnings from two of the U.S.’s most prominent defense contractors are leading the tape. After weak Q1 reports and a tenuous Iran ceasefire, aerospace and defense stocks deepened their drawdowns as the market repriced the re-stock trade and institutional selling intensified. But now that the war is back on and Q2 reports from defense companies are rolling in, the repricing is being repriced. Does the defense trade have staying power this time? Lockheed Martin Inc. NYSE: LMT and RTX Inc. NYSE: RTX are two of the largest U.S. defense contractors, and both their stocks soared at the start of the year. But the outbreak of the Iran war in late February actually marked the top of the defense trade, and shares of both companies declined 25% and 19% peak to trough, respectively, after making all-time highs in Q1. Poor Q1 earnings from Lockheed drove the deeper decline, while higher commodity prices also weighed on RTX’s commercial order book. The Q2 reports flipped the script, with both companies beating earnings-per-share (EPS) and revenue estimates and adding to their record backlogs. And crucially, not a dollar of earnings or backlog space has factored in the resumption of hostilities in Iran. One crucial caveat to the thesis: the 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) has not yet been enacted following a failed cloture vote in the Senate. The debate is likely just noise and posturing between the Trump administration and Congress. Still, if the NDAA isn’t signed by October 1, no multiyear contracts for defense procurement can be distributed, and these contracts are the backbone of the RTX and LMT backlogs. The drawdown in RTX shares is officially over following its Q2 2026 results. The beat was highlighted by 14.5% year-over-year (YOY) revenue growth, which topped analysts’ estimates by more than 8%. EPS of $1.89 also crushed the expected $1.66, and the backlog grew 22% YOY to a record $289 billion. More than $43 billion worth of new orders were booked in the quarter, including $20 billion for the Raytheon division (i.e., defense). This is the company’s 8th consecutive beat, which may be why investors are willing to pay 30 times forward earnings for the stock. An 8% earnings beat is rare, even for RtX, and it gave management the confidence to raise guidance for full-year sales, EPS, and free cash flow. The company now projects total 2026 EPS of $7.10 to $7.25, a 5% increase over its previous high-end estimate. RTX shares jumped 7% on the release, but a looming issue clouds the celebration. The backlog is a mix of commercial and defense contracts, and the Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney divisions account for $170 billion of the $289 billion total. Collins and Pratt are the aerospace wings of the company, with Raytheon making the weapo...