Tesla: AI And Robotic Dreams Hit Cash Flow Reality

Tesla delivered record Q2 revenues and vehicle deliveries, but earnings remain under pressure due to surging operating expenses and capital expenditures. TSLA's growth thesis now hinges on monetizing FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus, but these ventures are early-stage and currently dilute earnings. Despite robust cash reserves, negative free cash flow and rising CapEx make TSLA's valuation highly dependent on future success in software and robotics. I maintain a Hold rating, citing 7% downside to the base case price target and growing execution risks across multiple ambitious initiatives.