SpaceX: Why IPO History Prompts A Double Upgrade

SpaceX is upgraded to a buy after a 51% peak-to-trough decline, aligning with historical IPO drawdown patterns that signal attractive long-term entry points. SPCX now trades 15% below its IPO price; technicals show emerging support at $111, with $102 as a key historical buy zone and $120 as a near-term confirmation level. Despite heavy selling and upcoming share unlocks, I believe the drawdown largely prices in supply risks, with major Wall Street targets (e.g., $300 from Morgan Stanley) remaining bullish. Q2 2026 earnings on August 4 could act as a clearing event, with implied volatility at 115% suggesting a significant price move ahead. SpaceX ( SPCX ) has gone from darling to dog. Shares peaked above $225 on June 16, shortly after its IPO. Today, the stock bumps along the $110 mark, which is a bit more than 50% below its peak. That’s key, as historical IPO data point to 55% being the typical max.