Roblox estimates trimmed by Wedbush ahead of second quarter results

Roblox Corp ( NYSE:RBLX ) is facing near-term pressure on user growth expectations as Wedbush lowered its fiscal 2026 estimates ahead of the company’s second quarter results, citing ongoing friction from age-verification measures that the firm believes are weighing on access to the platform. The analysts maintained an ‘Outperform’ rating and a $65 price target, above current levels of $48. Wedbush lowered its fiscal 2026 daily active user (DAU) estimate to 129.3 million from 135 million, bookings expectations to $7.40 billion from $7.50 billion and adjusted EBITDA estimates to $1.51 billion from $1.54 billion. The revised bookings estimate sits in the lower half of Roblox’s previous guidance range of $7.33 billion to $7.60 billion, while adjusted EBITDA is near the lower end of the company’s outlook. The analysts wrote that the estimate cuts were driven entirely by the DAU revision, which they believe points to second-quarter results below current consensus expectations. Wedbush added that the adjustment is primarily a near-term revision and kept its $65 price target based on a 22x enterprise value to EBITDA multiple on its revised fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $1.95 billion. Wedbush’s DAU forecast is based on Similarweb’s mobile proxy data, which the firm noted has historically tracked with Roblox’s reported DAUs. The analysts wrote that the proxy averaged 40.5 million users in the second quarter, down about 5% from the first quarter, which implied reported DAUs of around 113 million. However, Wedbush noted that the model may overstate the decline because the proxy only captures mobile activity and may be disproportionately affected by the age-veri...