Big Tech's Free Cash Flow Is Turning Negative - Who's Next?

Big Tech is gaining momentum when it comes to AI monetization, but capex continues to far outpace operating cash flow. The company spending the most on capex in 2026 just went free cash flow negative, and our estimates suggest it may not be alone by year-end. Meanwhile, most of Big Tech is tapping capital markets to fortify their balance sheets, leading to huge debt increases.

Big Tech’s AI revenue is accelerating, but free cash flow is moving sharply in the opposite direction. Across Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN), capex is rising.