S&P500: VIX Rises as $100 Oil and Treasury Yield Spike Hammer Stocks

The S&P 500 breaks below its 50-day average as oil, rising Treasury yields and rate-hike odds hammer stocks.

The S&P 500 falls as $100 oil and a 4.70% 10-year yield lift the VIX, reviving Fed hike fears and broad stock market selling.

VIX rises above key moving averages as $100 crude and Treasury yields turn a tech selloff into broader S&P 500 pressure.

Brent pushed into triple digits and WTI cleared $92. Treasury yields followed crude higher with the 10-year reaching its highest level since January 2025. Rate-hike odds repriced hard.

Alphabet and Tesla opened the door with their earnings misses but oil and yields are the reason the selling spread into the Dow and S&P 500 by Thursday afternoon.

At 16:15 GMT, the Nasdaq Composite is trading 25,143.203, down 547.70 or -2.13%. The S&P 500 Index is at 7,411.01, down 87.95 or -1.17%. The Dow is trading 51,772.36, down 446.22 or -0.85%.

Declining issues outnumber advancers 2.72-to-1 on the NYSE and 2.2-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing an 82% chance of a September hike, up from 52% a week ago. July odds jumped to 38% from 12% last week.

That repricing happened because Brent went through $100 and jobless claims came in at 187,000, well below the 212,000 estimate and the lowest reading since 1969.

The economy is not giving the Fed any reason to soften its tone while crude is giving it every reason to stay hawkish.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.707% and the 30-year pushed above 5.18%. The benchmark yield cleared its May 20 high at 4.687%, putting 4.809% in focus, a level last touched in January 2025.

The 2-year yield climbed to 4.370%, resuming the steady stream of higher highs that began in March at 4.027%. The swing lows have been rising too with the nearest level at 4.111%. All of this is taking place on the strong side of the 50-day moving average at 4.128%.

Alphabet fell 6.4% and dragged communication services down 4.4%. Tesla fell 12.2% after posting negative free cash flow for the first time in more than two years.

Both reports put the cost of the AI and robotics buildout in front of traders. Texas Instruments fell 3.2% despite forecasting quarterly revenue above estimates.

The market is separating companies showing immediate earnings from companies asking traders to wait.

The VIX rose 2.15 points after three consecutive days of declines. The spike drove the index to the strong side of its 200-day moving average at 18.71 and its 50-day at 17.36.

This only becomes significant if the indicator holds above both averages. Additional strength gets recognized if the VIX takes out recent swing tops at 20.72 and 23.34.

Lockheed Martin rose after raising its 2026 sales and profit forecasts. The defense name is catching a bid as the Middle East conflict widens.

ServiceNow gained after raising its annual subscription-revenue forecast for a second time. Money is moving toward companies with immediate earnings and away from companies where the spending bill is still growing.