Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Inventory Data Looms Will Brent Extend Toward $98?

Traders await fresh U.S. inventory data as geopolitical risks continue threatening global crude supply routes. WTI has broken above major trendline resistance, improving the short-term outlook while targeting $88.66. Brent continues its bullish breakout, with buyers defending $91.82 as the next upside target shifts to $98.03. LNG exports are expected to reach 17.4 Bcf/d in 2026, reinforcing long-term demand for U.S. natural gas. Natural gas remains trapped below key moving averages, leaving the market range-bound until a decisive breakout emerges.

As traders await a new U.S. inventory snapshot to discern if supply and demand are finally coming back into balance, the fundamental picture in oil markets remains centered on geopolitical risk. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecast a 500K barrel draw in U.S. commercial crude supplies for the week ended July 17, which would be a second-straight decline, so attention will be on Wednesday’s report. Risks to supply remain elevated following military strikes in the Middle East and North Africa by the U.S. against Iran and Yemen’s Houthis. The war continues to hamper navigation through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz , and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium halted receiving crude from Kazakhstan following a missile strike near its terminal on the Black Sea. Saudi crude exports were down for a third straight month in May.

Natural gas fundamentals remain positive. The EIA anticipates U.S. LNG exports will average 17.4 Bcf/d in 2026, from 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025, as more export capacity becomes available and global gas demand remains resilient. It also expects U.S. crude production will average 13.8 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, then hit 14.0 million bpd in 2027.

Natural gas continues to move sideways as prices trade around $2.88 per the 4-hour chart, even if there have been a number of rallies. The contract remains lower than the 50-EMA at $2.93 and 100-EMA at $3.00. That is a sign that sellers are still in control of the short-term trend overall. $2.90 is immediate resistance, then $2.95, then $3.02, $3.09. Short-term support would be at $2.82, then at $2.78, $2.73, $2.66. The RSI is about 48 which is neutral and indicative of a directionless trend. To my technical analysis, natural gas still needs to consolidate. Should prices move persistently higher to trade $2.90 to $2.95, that would improve short-term momentum toward $3.02, however, if the market falls back below $2.82 that would increase a move towards $2.78.

The WTI crude price broke higher above its multi-week trend on the 4-hour chart, which is a positive sign for short-term sentiment. Prices sit at $85.25, above the 50-EMA at $79.78 and 100-EMA at $77.77. This is the case following its recent rally that started in early July lows. WTI crude is now also situated higher than the 61.8% level that retraced to a level of $83.48. $88.66 is near term resistance, and that would be followed by $93.71, then the 100% projection at about $95.00. Short term support should be at $83.48, with further support at $80.34, $77.07. RSI is approximately 68, which is momentum strong, but near an overbought reading. Based on my technical analysis, the ...