IBM Earnings Preview: A Maddening Long Since The Late '24 Breakout

When IBM reports their actual Q2 ’26 results Wednesday night, July 22nd after the closing bell, analyst consensus has lowered expectations after the negative IBM pre-announcement last week that dropped the stock 25% during the trading day. The consensus revenue estimate was $17.7 billion but is now $16.9 billion. The consensus EPS estimate was $3.00 but is now $2.88.

IBM management has given off a lot of mixed signals, mostly on AI, where they withdrew their AI guidance on the April ’26 call by effectively not updating the AI book even though AI metrics were given on the previous three conference calls, which showed the AI book was growing.

Since IBM broke out to an all-time high (above the April 2013 high of $215-216 per share), the stock has been range-bound between $200 at the low end and $325-335 at the high end of the trading range. The peak price prints, or all-time