Samsara's Data Moat Now Comes With Numbers

Samsara maintains a Buy rating after robust Q1 results and a successful Investor Day, with price targets of $52 (base) and $61 (bull). Net new ARR grew 30% YoY, large customer momentum remains strong, and margins continue expanding despite modest gross margin pressure from AI/cloud investments. IOT's proprietary data moat and scaled hardware network underpin new product launches—Tracking Label, Waste Intelligence, and Ground Intelligence—unlocking fresh TAM and high-margin opportunities. With only ~1% TAM penetration and 6% core customer reach, IOT's growth runway remains substantial barring macro or execution risks.

In my debut article for Samsara ( IOT ) published two months ago (recommended read before this one), I laid out my thesis on the company: Samsara was down ~50% from its all-time high despite the previous Q4 FY26