Constellation Energy: The Inventory Is Smaller Than The Gap

Constellation Energy is uniquely positioned with the largest deliverable carbon-free inventory, controlling over half of the US merchant nuclear pool. CEG’s investment case hinges on structural scarcity: its uncontracted nuclear inventory is smaller than the massive data-center-driven supply gap, supporting durable pricing power. Guidance excludes upside from ~147 TWh of uncontracted nuclear, offering a free, unmodeled option potentially worth +$1.5 to $4 EPS over five years. I rate CEG a Buy for its downside-protected, contracted base and mispriced optionality, favoring entry on weakness toward the mid-$250s.