Why I'm 80% Cash While Everyone's Busy Blaming Kimi K3

Long semiconductors was the Street's most crowded trade at 82% (a record), and the SOXX was already near bear territory before K3 launched. TSMC raised guidance and got sold anyway. The market wasn't that impressed about ASML's beat and raise either. I'm watching hyperscaler earnings and Kevin Warsh's tone on July 29 before I touch this dip. Little else moves me off an 80% cash position. I think the panic selloff is overblown, but I'm not calling the lows yet. In the meantime, I'm monitoring the triple Qs and the SOXX on a daily basis. U.S. chip stocks had an ugly Friday, and by the weekend the wires had agreed on a culprit. A new Chinese model called Kimi K3. The single names took it on the chin, and the triple Qs closed down 1.5%, breaking a The market changed, and so did I. My style is not set in stone. I’m mostly long when the music is playing. When it stops/slows down, I may dabble with shorts via put options, although it’s not my forte. My style is highly speculative. I have a high risk tolerance that most rational investors would find alarming. I don’t have a favorite timeframe. That said, I trade mostly the mid-term and the short-term. I have a pathetic low six-digit portfolio, and I consider myself part of the mid to low end of the K-shaped economy. It sometimes drops to the five-digit range when life has other plans. I've been in the game since mid 2024, although my first dabbles with stocks (i.e., burning $100 trading accounts in a matter of days) go back to the early/mid 2010s. I like astrology, so I’m a follower of technical analysis (mainly trends and support/resistance/psychological levels). I also look at the fundamentals of individual names, although the theme and the macro often prevail in my decision-making.