Carrier Global Corporation Is Too Hot For My Comfort (Downgrade)

Carrier Global Corporation has delivered strong revenue growth and operational changes, but current valuation limits further upside. I downgrade CARR to Hold as shares are expensive on an absolute basis, despite being cheaper than peers. Short-term headwinds include declining residential HVAC sales and mixed profitability, with analysts expecting near-term revenue and net income declines. Long-term CARR positives include robust aftermarket growth, an expanding CHVAC market, and strategic exposure to data center and energy transition trends.